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From the "Senate Outlook" on dKos:

11. New Hampshire
New Hampshire experienced a GOP resurgence in 2002, retaking the governorship, both House seats, and winning a hard-fought Senate race against the state's most popular Democrat (Shaheen).

Unless Shaheen decides to challenge Judd Gregg, this will be a snoozer.

I have a different opinion.   Seven term state senator Burt Cohen is challenging Judd Gregg for his senate seat.  Despite Gregg high name recognition and statewide appeal, Cohen still has a decent chance.  What does it come down to?  Money of course.  

Interested in helping Cohen in the same way the blogosphere is helping Chandler?  Read on...

Here are the points:


  • Cohen has run for State Senate seven times, been targeted for defeat by the state repub party 7 times, redistricted out twice, but still won all seven contests.  
  • Gregg is widely seen in NH as Bush's whipping boy.  This is not going over well.  Polling from the fall shows that 43% thought Gregg desreved re-election while 40% thought it was time for someone new.  Gregg's fate is tied to Bush's.  Here's the good news:  in Sept, Bush' job performance skewed negative (52% negative vs. 47% positive).

  • More detailed polling shows that Cohen's voter base would be slightly different from Shaheen's was in 2002 (Shaheen lost to Sununu).  Indeed, Cohen would pick up 9% of Sununu's voters including a disproportionate number of voters under 35 (14%), blue collor voters earning less than $30K/yr (13%) and independents (11%), forming a winning coalition.  
  • It will take roughly 260,000 votes to win the election against Gregg.  219,000 people showed up to vote in the Dem. primary just weeks ago.  This is completely within our grasp

So, what's missing.  Funding, of course.  Gregg enjoys a hige money advantage at this point in the election cycle.

Why is this important?  Well, aside from the obvious goal of picking off a Republican seat in the Senate, a competitive Senate race will in NH can put NH farther into the "swing state" category for the general election.  Needless to say, even our 4 electoral votes can tip the scale to the Democrats.

What can we do?  Contribute, contribute, and contribute again.  This is a crucial point for Cohen's campaign, please help out if you can.

Originally posted to Scott Pauls on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 11:55 AM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Great post! (none)
    I gave Burt Cohen $100 in the fall.  May drop in some more coin.

    Support H2239: the Voter Confidence and Increased Accessability act. It mandate a paper trail so that Bush won't steal the election in 2004! Write your reps!

    by Go Vegetarian on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 11:58:36 AM PST

  •  Burt Cohen... (none)
    ...is an old friend of mine and a very conscientious guy, knowledgeable on the issues, a participant in social movements... In fact I can see many similarities with the late Paul Wellstone. He'd be a great national Senator.

    "My truth plus your truth makes a bigger truth" - Mario Menéndez Rodríguez

    by Al Giordano on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 12:00:07 PM PST

  •  Interesting (none)
    Of course there's some overlap among voters under 35, voters under $30K and independents, so 14% + 13% + 11% don't quite add up. The 260K v 219K argument is more telling.

    If we pursue the Watershed year contingency, and if Kerry is the man (downgrading Senate prospects in NC, SC, GA, FL, LA, OK, MO and of course MA), NH (where Kerry probably does not have negative coattails)  is the sort of prospect we should examine more seriously.

    •  Lighten up (none)
      Most folks are liking John Kerry, and Bush is slowly imploding.  I predict substantial coattails and a re-taking on the senate.

      Regarding Massachusetts, we need John Kerry to give up his senate seat by June.  That way the replacement senator will just serve until November, at which point we can elect someone new.  (Can you say "Senator Barney Frank?")

      Support H2239: the Voter Confidence and Increased Accessability act. It mandate a paper trail so that Bush won't steal the election in 2004! Write your reps!

      by Go Vegetarian on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 12:34:10 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  RonK has a point (none)
        He isn't attacking Kerry or anything.

        Realistically, it's going to be very difficult to have coattails in the Senate (although I think that's true with any candidate this year). This is still Bush's election to lose.

        We should worry more about the individual ground force in each state for each Senate race.

        Is Shaheen working on this guy's Senate race? If not, she should. She's supposed to be such a miracle worker.

        •  The Shaheen factor (none)
          Is Shaheen working on this guy's Senate race? If not, she should. She's supposed to be such a miracle worker.

          Not as of yet - she's had her hands full with Kerry.  

          Help Burt Cohen win a NH senate seat.

          by Scott Pauls on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 12:45:53 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  besides (none)
            She will probably continue to have her hands full with Kerry. I expect her to have a high profile national position with his campaign through November.

            What Cohen needs to do is identify and turnout previously unengaged Democratic voters in Hillsborough and Rockingham counties. The fact that Manchester continues to trend slightly Republican is the one roadblock to NH becoming a solid blue state. And how Bush got more votes in Rockingham county than Gore I'll never understand...

      •  "Most folks are liking John Kerry"? (none)
        There's a difference between scoring 48% of the 10-20% (primary voters) of the 50% of general election voters who usually vote D, and 50% ofthe general election vote.

        I'm of the opinion that Kerry beats Bush, if Kerry is the nominee, IF Bush is the nominee ... but a Kerry ticket has woeful downsides and opportunity costs.

        Scott might know better than I ... how is Kerry regarded in NH outside the Dem base? Again, there's a big diff between 38% of Dem primary voters, and 50% of all general election voters.

    •  14+11+13 (none)
      These were just breakouts in the polling.  In other words, he picks up 9% of Sununu's support but picks up disproportionate amounts of support among those three groups.  Of course, that means he picks up disproportionately small support among over 35 voters, etc.

      I think the best stat there is the independents number.  11% of independents who voted for Sununu would vote for Cohen.  That alone would probably be enough to tip the balance or, at the very least, make the race really close.

      Help Burt Cohen win a NH senate seat.

      by Scott Pauls on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 12:36:18 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Maybe not. (none)
    JS came to our caucus (Portland) to speak for JK. There was a snafu, and Robert Kennedy spoke for JK. JS was as pro about it as one could hope for. Just under 3 hours each way to be bumped, and she had no complaint.

    Thats a very good quality in a pol.

    So, um, what's Cohen's position on the status of New Hampshire's Abenakis?

    If you wait long enough by the river, eventually the bodies of your enemies will float by.

    by trout on Tue Feb 10, 2004 at 11:13:53 PM PST

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