11. New Hampshire
New Hampshire experienced a GOP resurgence in 2002, retaking the governorship, both House seats, and winning a hard-fought Senate race against the state's most popular Democrat (Shaheen).
Unless Shaheen decides to challenge Judd Gregg, this will be a snoozer.
I have a different opinion. Seven term state senator Burt Cohen is challenging Judd Gregg for his senate seat. Despite Gregg high name recognition and statewide appeal, Cohen still has a decent chance. What does it come down to? Money of course.
Interested in helping Cohen in the same way the blogosphere is helping Chandler? Read on...
- Cohen has run for State Senate seven times, been targeted for defeat by the state repub party 7 times, redistricted out twice, but still won all seven contests.
- Gregg is widely seen in NH as Bush's whipping boy. This is not going over well. Polling from the fall shows that 43% thought Gregg desreved re-election while 40% thought it was time for someone new. Gregg's fate is tied to Bush's. Here's the good news: in Sept, Bush' job performance skewed negative (52% negative vs. 47% positive).
- More detailed polling shows that Cohen's voter base would be slightly different from Shaheen's was in 2002 (Shaheen lost to Sununu). Indeed, Cohen would pick up 9% of Sununu's voters including a disproportionate number of voters under 35 (14%), blue collor voters earning less than $30K/yr (13%) and independents (11%), forming a winning coalition.
- It will take roughly 260,000 votes to win the election against Gregg. 219,000 people showed up to vote in the Dem. primary just weeks ago. This is completely within our grasp
So, what's missing. Funding, of course. Gregg enjoys a hige money advantage at this point in the election cycle.
Why is this important? Well, aside from the obvious goal of picking off a Republican seat in the Senate, a competitive Senate race will in NH can put NH farther into the "swing state" category for the general election. Needless to say, even our 4 electoral votes can tip the scale to the Democrats.