It is my thesis that Kerry can, and is in the process of neutralizing the Swift Liars and using it as a springboard to tough attacks on issues. I explain
here and
here.
So where are we today? Let's start with the Note -
The big political moment of the day comes when the president speaks at a press availability this morning in Crawford, gets the expected Swift Boat question, and decides in both tone and substance how to answer.
So, while we wait to see what those remarks do for the velocity and vector direction of all this, let's review the bidding on the story both campaigns claim (with some credibility) that they would like to see go away, and yet are powerless -- so far -- to stop:
--What the Los Angeles Times wrote last Tuesday is more true -- not less true -- after a weekend of reporting by several serious news organizations:
"What military documentation exists and has been made public generally supports the view put forth by Kerry and most of his crewmates -- that he acted courageously and came by his Silver Star, Bronze Star and three Purple Hearts honestly. This view of Kerry as war hero is supported by all but one of the surviving veterans who served with him on the two boats he commanded." LINK
"None of the critics quoted in the ad actually served on the boats with Kerry. Some of them also have given contradictory accounts and offered conflicting recollections."
--There is no sign that the controversy has fundamentally affected the race (There is no dramatic change in the horserace number ... ), but plenty of feeling that it can erode Kerry's credibility and tarnish his war record. . . .
Note 8/23
A fair assessment of the current snapshot - but woefully short of analysis of where the story is headed. But it does identify the key event of the day on the story - Bush's Reaction. How did Bush react? From AP -
CRAWFORD, Texas - President Bush denounced campaign commercials aired by outside groups on Monday, including an ad that accuses John Kerry of lying about his combat record in Vietnam. "That ad and every other ad" run by such groups have no place in the campaign, Bush said when asked about the commercial sponsored by Swift Boat Veterans For Truth that has roiled the race for the White House. Asked directly whether his Democratic rival for the presidency had lied, Bush said, "I think Senator Kerry served admirably and he ought to be proud of his record." . . .
AP Bush What does this mean? That Bush is weaseling and hoping it goes away, as far as he is concerned. Will it work? No. The response chosen by Rove only fuels the fire. The obvious follow on - why not condemn the ad? He will be asked again and again. Kerry, of course, already denounced Move On's ad. The Bush story continues. And of course opens the door to the coordination charge.
What else? How about this from Michael Dobbs (the WaPo reporter) in his online chat today -
From a WaPo Online Chat with Michael Dobbs -
Vienna, Va.: The media seems to be focusing on the largely discredited or contradictory claims of the SBVs, merely because the have the GOP money to make it an issue. What about the larger issue of Kerry's record vs. Bush/Cheney's? Both went out of their way to avoid service. Why can't the media cover this angle without some heavily funded "For Truth" group making it an issue? Has the media lost perspective?
Michael Dobbs: I agree with you that Bush/Cheney's wartime record should be further examined before the election, and we intend to look at it. Whether it, too, will acquire "legs" will depend on what new information comes to light.
Balance. It's now going to bite Bush in the butt. And there is little to help Bush refute those problems.
My analysis in Extended.
I think today's events and the weekend coverage are in support of my view. The Swift Liars are now perceived as well . . . Liars.
Kerry has won the battle of the merits. So far, the effect has been slight down, but the polling was before the effects of the turn on the story. I think one astute comment about this on why Rove did this, comes from Andrew Ferguson's article in the Weekly Standard, to firm up the base - who weren't enthralled with Bush. I think there is something to that. And this means not slapping down the story right away. Actually, if Bush had said this a week ago, it would likely have gotten better play than it will now. But Rove liked the numbers and thought Kerry was in a quandary. As we see now, someone in Team Kerry knows what they are doing. They have played this well.
I also think that it shows the desperation that Rove feels now. He tried flip flopper, and tax raiser and blah blah blah and it wasn't working. So he played with fire here out of desperation!
But he is about to get burnt - Dobbs' comment is key here. To play "fair" - the SCLM now has to revisit AWOL. And remember, Bush has no good defense here. It turned out that not only did the truth support Kerry, he had the goods to prove the truth. For Bush - the truth hurts and he obviously can't prove a lie. Though his faithful will swear to it.
The final thing - as I wrote earlier, Kerry is now inoculated on the "going negative" charge - he's been smeared. Whateve rhe does now, on any issue, is just "fighting back." And that is quite a luxury - one challengers rarely have. And that is a huge part of this story.
So, where we are now, Bush has improved the support of his base - they are more energetic. Bush hurt Kerry marginally in the short term.
In the long term, the blowback has started, AWOL reemerges, Bush is now on the defensive, and Kerry has a free hand on critiquing the "President" - which he would not have had otherwise.
My take - it's over. Bush is toast.