NH State chair's report

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Thursday December 23, 2004 · 7:05 AM PST

2004/12/23 · 07:05

Kathy Sullivan, the current chair of the NHDP, send out a report (copied below) containing a report from the ASDC meeting. She talks, cagily, about the various candidates who wish to head the DNC. I particularly like the following quotes:

"This is going to be the most open chair's election in years. There are no clear cut favorites, there is no "insider" candidate gaining traction (despite what you may read on internet blogs)..."

Yeah, those damn internet blogs are always wrong..

Less catty comments in the extended entry...
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UPDATE: Social Security reality check

Scott Pauls

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Friday December 17, 2004 · 10:30 AM PST

2004/12/17 · 10:30

By now, I think we are all familiar with the (correct) arguent that there is no social security crisis. However, over at talkingpointsmemo, I saw this from the Times:

"I have a daughter at home. Her name is Wynter," said Ms. Jaques, sitting a few feet from President Bush at the White House economic conference on Thursday. "I want to make sure that she has Social Security when she retires as well."

Mr. Bush chimed in a moment later. "One of my visions of personal savings accounts is that Sandy will be able to pass her account on to Wynter as part of Wynter's capacity to retire as well."

This brought to mind a few questions... Read More

Bob Smith endorses Kerry

Scott Pauls

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Friday October 29, 2004 · 8:59 AM PDT

2004/10/29 · 08:59

Here's the letter thanks to Oliver Willis.

This really shocks me. Smith is really to the right - not a moderate in any sense. Granted, he split from the party, declared himself and independent running for president and then came back to the Republican party, giving he and Bush some mutual animosity. But read the letter, it is no tepid endorsement. If Smith, a right wing Republican (albeit a "maverick" of sorts), can get behind Kerry, who can't?

More below... Read More

email Kerry before the debate!

Scott Pauls

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Wednesday September 29, 2004 · 8:34 AM PDT

2004/09/29 · 08:34

I just got one of my regular emails from the Kerry-Edwards campaign and was struck by this line:

When I step to that podium tomorrow night, I know I will be facing a determined opponent.

But I will stand there with the courage of my convictions and the confidence that stems from having millions of grassroots supporters like you standing with me.

Those of us who work for campaigns, canvass, call, etc know the value of good morale. Even a little bit of encouragement can completely turn your day around. I think this goes both ways - you can see the energy a candidate can get from a crowd, a good campaign stop, or a single conversation with a voter.

Now, on the eve of the debates, Kerry needs that type of support. Here's what I propose: Read More

Gmail!

Scott Pauls

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Friday September 03, 2004 · 10:37 AM PDT

2004/09/03 · 10:37

Scipio was kind enough to give me a gmail invite so I'll pass a four more along. First four responses get one (include an email address).

All I ask in return is that you think about how you can help out this november - give to a candidate or organization you like, spend a few hours at a local campaign headquarters, whatever...

Huge swing of Gore voters to Bush!

Scott Pauls

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Monday August 16, 2004 · 8:47 AM PDT

2004/08/16 · 08:47

So implies the Washington Times with the lead paragraph:

Polls show this year's presidential race every bit as close as the 2000 election. Voters who supported President Bush four years ago who now support John Kerry are everywhere. So, where then are this year's Bush supporters who voted for former Vice President Al Gore in 2000?

And the answer is.... Read More

NH trivia in FMA roll call vote

Scott Pauls

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Wednesday July 14, 2004 · 12:52 PM PDT

2004/07/14 · 12:52

Let's take a look at the roll call vote on cloture for the FMA today. Yesterday, my local paper said that, among the New England State, all but one of the senators were on record as going to vote against the ammendment. In my state, New Hampshire, the paper reported that Gregg would vote against and that Sen. Sununu had not yet made a decision:

At least four of the region's five Republicans will join the six Democrats and one independent and vote against the proposed constitutional amendment banning gay marriage this week. Only one, Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., was still undecided, and calls to his office yesterday were not returned.

So, what's going on?
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NH Gov in play?

Scott Pauls

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Friday July 09, 2004 · 12:28 PM PDT

2004/07/09 · 12:28

I'm surpirsed that it already this close! Take a look at new poll results for Lynch and McEachern

Benson 43
Lynch 41
Und 16

Benson 43
McEachern 36
Und 21

moe claimed at 2.5 but they only polled 400 people.

In any case, it looks like Benson has a base of 43 or so. And Lynch could easily put the state in play (McEachern, with some extra name recognition, could also be in contention).

Great quote (for Dems):
But among the conclusions this poll found was that an eroding of Benson's popularity since the last poll was taken. Registered Republicans and independents have changed their minds the most about Benson. Since the last Becker Poll in November Benson's unfavorable rating went up 11 percent among Republicans, from 14 to 25 percent.

Ouch! a quarter disapproval from your own party.

Senate Pickup in NH: Burt Cohen

Scott Pauls

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Tuesday February 10, 2004 · 11:55 AM PST

2004/02/10 · 11:55

From the "Senate Outlook" on dKos:

11. New Hampshire
New Hampshire experienced a GOP resurgence in 2002, retaking the governorship, both House seats, and winning a hard-fought Senate race against the state's most popular Democrat (Shaheen).

Unless Shaheen decides to challenge Judd Gregg, this will be a snoozer.

I have a different opinion. Seven term state senator Burt Cohen is challenging Judd Gregg for his senate seat. Despite Gregg high name recognition and statewide appeal, Cohen still has a decent chance. What does it come down to? Money of course.

Interested in helping Cohen in the same way the blogosphere is helping Chandler? Read on... Read More

Zogby, ARG, SUSA: Are they any good?

Scott Pauls

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Friday February 06, 2004 · 3:52 PM PST

2004/02/06 · 15:52

A few days ago, kos posted a thread on "Rating the polls", giving the data for many major polls for the recent primaries. I gave some extra data to help measure the performance of the polls. Yesterday, I posted an abortive diary with more data on Zogby but screwed up the html.

This entry give the Zogby data again as well as the data for ARG and SUSA. A short analysis is: all these pollsters made significant enough errors that their results should not be trusted. For the long analysis... Read More

Zogby Poll Redux - Is he any good?

Scott Pauls

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Thursday February 05, 2004 · 5:56 PM PST

2004/02/05 · 17:56

Kos posted a list of the various poll results from different firms a
couple of days ago to help gauge their relative accuracy. His
said "The verdict? Zogby has been stunningly accurate. SUSA and
ARG have been pretty good."

I posted some extra data in the comments showing that while Zogby was clearly better than SUSA and ARG, he still had some flaws. Most notably in SC and MO, Zogby erred by factors more than acceptable given his MOE.

In the intervening day, I thought about this a little more and
realized the following. Each of Zogby's polls is really 7 little
polls put together (at least with respect to MOE). Becasue of
this, if we look at the data below, Zogby is reporting the results
of 26 different polls. As every poll has the disclaimer that 5%
of the time, the poll will just be wrong, we expect that roughly
one of these numbers is just flat out wrong. Let's take a look at
the data:

Read More

A new primary paradigm?

Scott Pauls

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Monday February 02, 2004 · 8:41 PM PST

2004/02/02 · 20:41

There's an intersting series of comments in the thread "Election eve's polls concerning a replacement system for the current primary system. I thought the conversation was worth continuing. Read More

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